The appointment of Barham Salih as the next UN High Commissioner in charge of Refugees is a turning point in the policy of the world in the area of displacement management. Having seventy-five years of uninterrupted European leadership, the election of an Iraqi statesman would change the course of the institutional path of one of the most powerful humanitarian organizations in the world. On December 11, 2025, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres officially nominated the name of Salih to the General Assembly, noting that the world needed new thinking because displacement has exceeded 120 million people.
The choice was the result of an intensive interview of about 12 applicants, including high profile diplomats and former ministers of Germany, Sweden and Switzerland and business executives including former IKEA executive Jesper Brodin. Guterres eventually gave priority to the record of Salih in navigating the post-ISIS stabilization of Iraq, a time when there became a confluence of record levels of refugees, displacement within the country and a poor state capacity.
The change of leadership is timed when the UNHCR operations are put under increased pressure. The current High Commissioner Filippo Grandi ends his ten-year term on December 31, 2025, and has addressed crises in Ukraine, in Sudan and in the Sahel. But the geopolitical climate of 2025 dictated by donor fatigue, fragmentation in the region and increasing demands of the Global South to be heard–created the pressure to create a change long opposed by European governments.
Why Has Europe’s Leadership Tradition Has Ended?
The history of European domination of the UNHCR leadership since 1950 was based on the postwar relations. The initial mission that the agency focused on was on European displacement and in this context the western Europe and the Nordic countries were viewed as the stewards of the same. Another aspect that supported the continuity of European leadership over decades was that these states were the most constant financial contributors to the agency as well.
However, 2025 reshaped this logic. Western donors are facing growing domestic political pressures in matters relating to immigration, declining humanitarian budgets, and conflicting priorities between Washington, Brussels, and London. Meanwhile, the displacement crises have decisively moved to the areas neighboring the Middle East and Africa. These changes cast doubt on whether an institutional structure that was led by Europeans could represent the realities on the ground.
According to internal UN officials, Guterres was interested in a leader who would be in line with the current centers of displacement, especially Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Sudan. The Kurdish-Arab background and political maneuvering in Iraq given by Salih gave a profile that best fit these contexts.
Regional Backing And Diplomatic Momentum
Middle Eastern powers and regional blocks were the first to support the candidacy of Salih. One of the first to publicly support him was the United Arab Emirates, where Ambassador Jamal Al Musharakh had stressed the significance of regionally-based leadership based on the fact that some of the largest refugee flows in the world were produced by the United Arab Emirates. The Kurdistan Regional Government and Iraq also took center stage which boosted the records and experience of Salih in humanitarian response.
Former Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari said that Salih seeks everything needed and knows how hard displacement and reconstruction can be. His comments indicated a structured regional approach to have a leadership that is more responsive to the Global South issues.
The interview panel reduced the competition to a few finalists and according to Salih, his advisor, Mohammed Hawrami, Salih performed better than the candidates of various countries that are significant donors. This support means that there is a wider geopolitical restructuring whereby governments in the Middle East are asserting themselves in the multilateral institutions.
Implications For Donor Power And Funding Dynamics
Funding of UNHCR is highly dominated by the western states, with the United States and European Union making up about 70 percent of its 11.8 billion budget in 2025. The presence of a non-European High Commissioner disrupts the donor anticipations regarding the correctness of leadership and policy orientation.
Privately Western diplomats are worried that Salih might re-focus his attention on the European border pressures to the long-term crises in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. The negotiations on funding of the 2026-2030 may indicate these tensions, particularly when the United States is experiencing the political discussions after Donald Trump comes back to power in 2025.
Growing Role Of Global South Contributors
UAE, Qatar and Turkish countries have considerably boosted their humanitarian funding in the last five years. In 2025, Southern donations were 15 percent of the total budget of the UNHCR, not so much but still substantial politically. The leadership of Salih can make such donors more influential, which can possibly change the areas of priorities and the frameworks of operation.
Geopolitical Realignment In Refugee Governance
UNHCR is not the only one which undergoes changes of leadership. Similarly, WHO and UNESCO also appointed representatives of the Global South in 2025 amid the demands to break the long-standing western dominance. The tendencies are indicative of an international system aimed at redressing the balance of representation towards the regions that are most crisis impacted.
Strategic Considerations In A Polarized Security Council
Increased tensions within the Security Council such as the threats by Russia to veto humanitarian corridors often played into Guterres calculation. The presence of a High Commissioner who has a local legitimacy in the Middle East would enhance the channels of negotiations in conflict zones whereby the western diplomats are restricted.
Reactions Among European Capitals
Whereas official official statements are being quite moderate, European diplomats off record are concerned that the policy of repatriation and negotiation of resettlement could now be seen through the Middle Eastern political prism. This issue is especially burning when it comes to debates about returning to Syria and post-war Gaza.
Operational Challenges Confronting Salih
According to UNHCR, Africa and the Middle East were almost the source of 60 percent of the world’s displacement in the year 2025. In Sudan, where access is restricted, renewed violence in Yemen, and a continued instability in northern Syria are all operational challenges that Salih will receive on January 1.
Funding Gaps And Mandate Expansion
By the end of 2025, UNHCR has had to cut shelter, healthcare, and food aid in over a dozen regions due to a funding shortfall of almost 60 percent. Increasing pressure on an already tensed system is a growing burden of climate-induced displacement especially in Pacific Island states with the rising sea height.
Navigating U.S. Political Shifts
The reaffirmation of border security and control along with endangering multilateral agreements by Trump could complicate the initial diplomatic overture by Salih. Washington has traditionally contributed approximately a quarter of the annual financial contributions to UNHCR, and U.S. cooperation is the key to stabilizing the operations.
Middle East Conflicts As Early Indicators
The test of time on Salih will be his immediate response to the changing crises in Yemen and Syria. The humanitarian crisis in Yemen worsened until 2025 when famine was seen in a number of governorates. The uncertain and unstable political transition in Syria, which is likely to follow major geopolitical dealings, is likely to determine trends in displacement in early 2026. His previous mediation attempt in Iraq could equip Salih with the means of making his way through such challenging territories, but regional favoritism might be a limiting factor.
UNHCR’s Next Chapter
Barham Salih’s appointment closes a European chapter that defined UNHCR since its inception, replacing it with a leadership model more closely connected to displacement hotspots. His success will depend on balancing Western donor expectations, regional sensitivities, and an unprecedented scale of humanitarian need.
As the agency moves toward 2026 with rising conflicts and widening funding gaps, observers are asking whether this Middle East pivot will strengthen global capacity or expose deeper institutional fractures, what new coalitions might emerge as UNHCR adjusts to a world increasingly shaped by crises outside Europe?